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上半年FY23 CV, 3W销售分析:行业处于增长轨道;塔塔汽车和巴贾吉汽车失去了市场份额

上半年FY23 CV, 3W销售分析:行业处于增长轨道;塔塔汽车和巴贾吉汽车失去了市场份额

尽管商用车市场尚未达到峰值，但由于需求健康且去年基数较低，预计本财年将实现两位数增长。虽然所有主要oem的销量都在增长，但市场领导者塔塔汽车(Tata Motors)报告称，其销量较去年同期下降了约3个百分点。同样，三轮车的销量也有望在去年较低的基础上以健康的两位数增长。市场领头羊巴贾吉汽车再次失去了很大一部分蛋糕，从而使该领域的其他整车厂受益。

Shubhangi Bhatia ETAuto
更新日期:2022年10月21日09:07美国标准时间
新德里消息:国内商用车辆在本财年的前6个月，汽车行业同比增长。然而，根据行业机构SIAM(印度汽车制造商协会)发布的最新数据，其在2022-23上半年的销量为45.6万辆，仍低于2018-19年的48.7万辆。

该行业机构表示，商用车领域已开始显示出更好的需求，未来几个月的市场趋势似乎是积极的。

国内销售(单位)

 H1 FY19

 H1 FY20

 H1 FY21

 H1 FY22

 H1 FY23
商用车辆(cv)

 4, 87000

 3, 75000

 65000

 2, 72051

 4, 56199
三轮车(3Ws)

 3, 54000

 3, 31000

 59000年

 95451年

 96612
商用车辆

CRISIL Research总监Pushan Sharma预计，受运输盈利能力改善、车队利用率提高、递延更换需求的实现以及建筑和基础设施行业的健康需求的推动，2020 -23财年国内CV批发销量将增长22-24%。

CV玩家在2023财年上半年见证了约67%的强劲增长，在2022财年上半年较低的基础上超过2020财年21.5%的水平。由于整车厂的年终销售推动和建筑活动的改善，下半年的销售历史上高于上半年。他说，类似的趋势预计在23财年也会出现，但利率上升、燃料价格上涨和BS-VI第二阶段的模糊性可能会限制下半年的增长。

CV国内批发量将在2022-23财年增长22-24%Pushan Sharma, CRISIL研究总监

在2022年4月至9月期间，M&HCV的销量增加到15.5万辆，而去年同期为82639辆。客运航空公司的国内销量增长了5倍，达到15358辆;货运航空公司的国内销量增长了近一倍，达到14万辆。

LCVs记录了30万次调度，高于22财年上半年的18.9万次。客运航空公司增长了2倍多，货运航空公司增长了55%。

国内销售-商用车辆
国内销售-商用车辆

ICRA有限公司副总裁兼企业评级联合集团负责人Kinjal Shah也持类似观点，他说:“由于潜在需求驱动因素保持积极，预计国内CV行业在中短期内将出现健康的销量增长。基础设施和建筑活动的回升，尤其是道路行业的增长，预计将推动重型卡车行业的增长。道路行业也提振了水泥和钢铁行业的销量。”

“另一方面，除了一般贸易的回升，轻型CV部门将继续获得电子商务和农业部门的积极支持。更换需求也将是一个主要的增长动力，特别是对于M&HCV卡车部门，考虑到这已经推迟了2-3年。因此，我国的M&HCV舰队的平均年龄处于过去20年的最高水平，这意味着良好的替换潜力，”她说。

对于M&HCV(卡车)部门来说，受建筑和采矿活动上升的支持，以及水泥、钢铁等行业的健康需求，该部门预计将在2023财年实现健康的两位数增长。在2023财年，LCV卡车部门也将继续保持正增长轨迹，对最后一英里运输的需求增加，特别是在电子商务领域，支持增长前景。ICRA的Shah表示，在较低的基数支撑下，客运/巴士市场的增长将会很高，而其他因素，如教育机构和办公室的重新开放、旅游业的复苏、减少对公共交通的风险规避，将会支撑该行业的销量。

据Motilal Oswal称，CV需求势头相当稳定，雨季后需求一直在改善，但整车厂仍在提供折扣以获得市场份额。该渠道的库存处于20-30天的最佳水平。

CV整车厂市场份额- 2010财年H1
CV整车厂市场份额- 2010财年H1

CV整车厂市场份额- H1 FY22
CV整车厂市场份额- H1 FY22

市场领导者塔塔汽车在23财年上半年在国内市场销售了18.6万辆，比去年同期的1.2万辆有所增长。然而，该公司目前在该领域的销售额仅占41%，市场份额比去年下降了3个百分点以上。

塔塔汽车执行董事Girish Wagh表示，商用车行业在23财年第二季度见证了持续的需求。塔塔销量的增长主要得益于mhcv的销售和客运公司需求的复苏。车队利用率的提高、道路建设项目的回升和水泥消费的增加促进了对mhcv的需求复苏。

“最近在MHCV和ILCV中推出了令人兴奋的新智能卡车系列，以及最好的皮卡将帮助我们更好地服务我们的客户。展望未来，尽管我们预计圣诞季销售强劲，但我们将密切关注不断变化的地缘政治、通胀和利率风险对供需的影响，”他表示。

Mahindra & Mahindra、Ashok Leyland在本财年的上半财年成为赢家，分别上涨了约1和2个百分点。在2022年4月至9月期间，马欣德拉派出了12.3万辆，后者报告的销量为79639辆。

mhcv负责人Sanjeev Kumar说:“商用车市场已经复苏，正在恢复到新冠疫情前的水平。宏观经济环境已经改善，终端用户部门的需求强劲。由于建筑和采矿等关键行业的发展计划、基础设施项目的资本支出增加、道路运输和道路支出增加、多式联运以及被压抑的更换需求，M&HCV市场的交易量有所增加。”

推出新产品和增加接触点有助于我们的增长故事。他说:“今年下半年，我们计划进一步增加在北部和东部的联络点。”

滑板车

在过去两个财年中，三轮车市场也出现了增长。在2022年4月至9月期间，该部门报告的国内销量为19.7万辆，仍低于2009- 2010年上半年的20.8万辆。该部门在2018- 2019财年上半年达到峰值，当时工厂出货量达到35.4万件。

由于客运客运业务的复苏以及电动汽车在该领域的渗透率提高，今年上半年的3W销量翻了一番Kinjal Shah, ICRA有限公司公司评级副总裁兼联合集团主管


CRISIL研究公司预计，随着大流行影响基础较低，需求复苏，23财年三轮(货物运输船)销量将增长32-34%。

“由于总体经济放缓、Covid-19疫情的流动限制以及司机所有者的收入受到影响，2020 - 2022财年的销售受到了影响。三轮车(商品)销售额在2023财年上半年实现了约39%的视觉增长，但销量仍低于新冠疫情前的水平，增长势头预计在2023财年下半年也将持续，但财政的总体销售额仍将低于新冠疫情前的水平。”

国内销售-三轮车
国内销售-三轮车

ICRA的Kinjal Shah表示，与去年同期相比，2023财年上半年该领域的销量翻了一番，这是由于客运航空领域的复苏以及电动汽车在该领域的渗透率提高所带来的增长。

3W整车厂市场份额- 1财年23
3W整车厂市场份额- 1财年23

3W oem市场份额- H1 FY22
3W oem市场份额- H1 FY22


在三轮车制造商中，Bajaj Auto损失了约5个百分点的可观份额。该公司目前的市场份额为57%，上年同期为62%。其在国内市场的销量从22财年上半年的58,647辆增加到23财年上半年的逾11.1万辆。

另一方面，比亚乔汽车(Piaggio Vehicles)增长超过2个百分点，今年销量为38,341辆，而上一财年同期的销量为16,188辆。

展望未来，CRISIL认为，从2020财年到2022财年的更换需求推迟，电子商务普及率的提高导致对最后一英里快递的需求上升，电动三轮货车的型号增加，这些都是三轮货车增长的推动力。

过渡到分吨LCV最后一英里，因为它们能够携带更高的有效载荷，允许灵活性和不断上升的利率可能会带来挑战。

还读:

上半年FY23汽车销售分析:现代、Hero受冲击最严重;塔塔、HMSI成为赢家

本财年的上半年是光伏行业有史以来表现最好的时期，但人们对入门级光伏和两轮车的担忧依然存在。至于整车厂，塔塔和马欣德拉获得了部分市场份额，而现代则损失了约3个百分点。同样，Hero MotoCorp的股价也下跌了3个百分点，而HMSI等其他公司的股价则在前六个月出现上涨。


2022年9月汽车批发:pv再创新高，cv上升，2w似乎是积极的

在本财年过半之际，汽车销量曲线正在回升，这得益于此前的低基数、半导体短缺的缓解、供求差距的缩小、令人兴奋的新产品推出、时隔两年无新冠疫情的节日带来的消费者热情。



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New Delhi:<\/strong> The domestic commercial vehicle<\/a> (CV) industry has grown year-on-year in the first six months of the fiscal year. However, its sales volumes at 4.56 lakh units during H1 2022-23 are still below the 4.87 lakh units in 2018-19, according to the latest data released by the industry body SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers).

The industry body said that the commercial vehicle segment has started showing better demand and the market trend for the coming months seems to be positive.

Domestic Sales (in units)

<\/div><\/div><\/td>
H1 FY19

<\/td>		H1 FY20

<\/td>		H1 FY21

<\/td>		H1 FY22

<\/td>		H1 FY23

<\/td><\/tr>
Commercial Vehicles (CVs)

<\/td>		4,87,000

<\/td>		3,75,000

<\/td>		1,65,000

<\/td>		2,72,051

<\/td>		4,56,199

<\/td><\/tr>
Three Wheelers (3Ws)

<\/td>		3,54,000

<\/td>		3,31,000

<\/td>		59,000

<\/td>		95,451

<\/td>		1,96,612

<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>Commercial Vehicles<\/strong>

Pushan Sharma, Director, CRISIL Research expects CV domestic wholesale volumes to grow by 22-24% in fiscal 2022-23 driven by improving transporter profitability, higher fleet utilization levels, materialization of deferred replacement demand and healthy demand from construction and infrastructure sectors.

CV players witnessed strong growth of about 67% in H1 fiscal 2023 on a low base of H1 fiscal 2022 exceeding fiscal 2020 levels by 21.5%. Sales in the second half of a fiscal are historically higher than those in the first half attributable to year-end sales push by OEMs and improving construction activities. A similar trend is expected to play out in FY23 as well, however rising interest rates, rise in fuel prices and ambiguity regarding BS-VI Phase-2 can restrict growth in H2, he said.

CV domestic wholesale volumes to grow by 22-24% in fiscal 2022-23Pushan Sharma, Director, CRISIL Research<\/cite><\/div><\/blockquote>
During April-September 2022, M&HCV sales increased to 1.55 lakh units as against 82,639 units in the year-ago period. Domestic sales volumes of passenger carriers were up 5X to 15,358 units and that of goods carriers almost doubled to 1.40 lakh units.

<\/div><\/div>LCVs recorded 3 lakh dispatches up from the 1.89 lakh units in H1 FY22. Here, passenger carriers grew by over 2X and goods carriers increased by 55%.

\"
Domestic Sales- Commercial Vehicles<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Sharing a similar view, Kinjal Shah, Vice President and Co-Group Head - Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited said, \u201cThe domestic CV industry is expected to report healthy volume growth over the near- to- medium term as the underlying demand drivers remain positive. Pickup in infrastructure and construction activity, especially in the road segment, which also boosts volumes in the cement and steel sector, is expected to drive growth in the heavier truck segments.\"

\"On the other hand, the light CV segment would continue to derive support from the positivity in the e-commerce and agricultural segments besides pickup in general trade. Replacement demand would also be a major growth driver, especially for the M&HCV truck segment, given that this has been deferred for over 2-3 years. Accordingly, the average age of the M&HCV fleet in the country is at the highest levels of the past two decades, signifying good replacement potential,\" she said.

For the M&HCV (truck) segment, supported by the uptick in construction and mining activity, besides healthy demand in sectors such as cement, steel, the segment is expected to grow in healthy double digits in FY2023. The LCV truck segment, in FY2023, would also continue on its positive growth trajectory, with increased requirements for last-mile transport, especially in e-commerce, supporting growth prospects. Growth in the passenger carrier\/bus segment would be high optically, supported by the low base, while other factors such as the reopening of educational institutes and offices, the comeback of tourism, reducing risk aversion towards public transport, would support volumes in the sector, said Shah of ICRA.

According to Motilal Oswal, the CV demand momentum is quite stable and demand has been improving post monsoons, but OEMs are still offering discounts to gain market share. Inventory in the channel is at its optimal level of 20-30 days.

\"
CV OEMs Market Share - H1 FY23<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
\"
CV OEMs Market Share - H1 FY22<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Market leader Tata Motors clocked 1.86 lakh unit sales in the domestic market during H1 FY23, marketing a growth over a year-ago period when it clocked 1.20 lakh units. However, the company now contributes only 41% in the segment sales, reporting over 3 percentage point drop in its market share compared to last year.

Girish Wagh, Executive Director, Tata Motors said that the commercial vehicles industry witnessed a consistent demand in Q2FY23. Tata's growth in sales volumes was led by sales of MHCVs and a recovery in passenger carrier demand. Improving fleet utilizations, pick up in road construction projects and increase in cement consumption catalysed the demand recovery for MHCVs.

\"The recent exciting launches of the new range of smart trucks in MHCV and ILCV, and best\u2010in\u2010class pickups will help us serve our customers better. Going forward, while we expect strong sales in the festive season we will maintain a close watch on the evolving geopolitical, inflation and interest rate risks on both the supply and demand,\" he said.

Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland emerged as gainers during the first half of this fiscal, jumping up about 1 and 2 percentage points respectively. Mahindra dispatched 1.23 lakh units and the latter reported sales volumes at 79,639 units during the April-September 2022 period.

Sanjeev Kumar, Head-MHCV, Ashok Leyland said, \"The commercial vehicle market has recovered and is returning to its pre-COVID levels. The macroeconomic environment has improved, and there is strong demand from end-user sectors. Volumes in the M&HCV market have increased due to development initiatives in key industries like construction and mining, higher capital expenditure for infrastructure projects, increased expenditure for road transport & roads, multimodal connectivity, and pent-up replacement demand.\"

Launching new products and adding touchpoints has contributed to our growth story. Going into the next half of the year, we plan to further increase our touch points in North & East, he said.

Three-wheelers<\/strong>

The three-wheeler segment has also seen growth over the last two fiscal years. During April-September 2022 period, the segment reported domestic sales at 1.97 lakh units, still below H1 2009-10 levels, when it was at 2.08 lakh units. The segment hit its peak during the first half of FY 2018-19 when the factory dispatches touched 3.54 lakh units.

3W volumes doubled during H1 YoY, due to growth led by a revival in the passenger carrier segment as well as increased penetration of EVs in the segmentKinjal Shah, Vice President and Co-Group Head - Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited<\/cite><\/div><\/blockquote>

CRISIL Research expects three wheeler (goods carrier) volumes to grow by 32-34% in FY23 as demand recovers on a low pandemic impacted base.

\u201cSales were impacted in fiscal year 2020 to 2022 attributable to the general economic slowdown, Covid-19 outbreak mobility restrictions and impacted incomes of driver owners. Three wheeler (goods) sales have seen an optical growth of about 39% in H1 fiscal 2023 however volumes are still below pre-covid levels, growth momentum is expected to sustain in H2 fiscal 2023 as well but overall sales for the fiscal would still be below pre-Covid levels,\" Sharma said.

\"
Domestic Sales- Three Wheelers<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Kinjal Shah of ICRA said that the segment volumes doubled during H1 FY2023 compared to a year-ago period, due to growth led by a revival in the passenger carrier segment as well as increased penetration of electric vehicles in the segment.

\"
3W OEMs Market Share - H1 FY23<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
\"
3W OEMs Market Share - H1 FY22<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>

Among the three-wheeler makers, Bajaj Auto lost a significant pie of about 5 percentage points. Its market share currently stands at 57% compared to 62% in the year-ago period. Its sales volumes in the domestic market increased to over 1.11 lakh units in H1 FY23 from just 58,647 units in H1 FY22.

Piaggio Vehicles, on the other hand, gained over 2 percentage points, reporting sales at 38,341 units this year, compared to 16,188 units in the corresponding period of last fiscal.

Going forward, CRISIL sees deferred replacement demand from fiscal years 2020 to 2022, rising e-commerce penetration leading to rising demand for last-mile delivery and increased model availability of electric three wheelers as some of the tailwinds for growth of three wheeler goods carriers.

Transition to sub-tonne LCV for last mile as they are able to carry a higher payload allowing flexibility and the rising interest rates may pose challenges, it said.

Also Read: <\/strong>

<\/a><\/figure>

H1 FY23 Auto Sales Analysis: Hyundai, Hero worst hit; Tata, HMSI emerge gainers<\/a><\/h2>

The first half of the current financial year turned out to be the best-ever for PV segment, however concern still remains in the entry-level category of PVs and two wheelers alike. As for OEMs, Tata and Mahindra gained a portion of the pie while Hyundai lost about 3 percentage points. Similarly, Hero MotoCorp is also down by 3 percentage points while others like HMSI have reported a gain during the first six months. <\/p><\/div>

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