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节日期间车辆登记增加，但未能从2019年开始上升
在印度，节日是希望和幸福的象征。在经历了两年的疫情后，今年为汽车经销商、消费者和整车厂带来了欢乐。但这是有史以来最好的节日吗?答案是否定的，尽管该行业的一部分在本财年正朝着创下历史最高年度销售额的目标迈进。
按行业据估计，从Navratri(9月26日)到排灯节(10月24日)，乘用车销量从去年的27.5万辆增长到约40万辆，增长了45%。然而，与新冠疫情前的节日季相比，这一数字仍然很低。
在这长达一个月的时间里，该国最大的汽车制造商铃木丸地(Maruti Suzuki)交付了约18.7万辆汽车，而去年节日期间交付了约13万辆。目前，该汽车制造商的待定订单约为4.4万辆，而整个行业的订单约为82.5万辆。
在印度，节日推动了人气购买，丹特拉斯、Choti排灯节和Badi排灯节的三天吉祥期吸引了大量需求。今年，从10月22日的丹特拉节到10月24日的排灯节，该行业的光伏发电量估计在5.4万台左右，高于过去两年，但仍低于2019年的7万台。
马鲁蒂铃木(Maruti Suzuki)交付了约2.3万辆汽车，而去年约为2万辆。2019年，这一数字为3万辆。
“这比去年增长了10%，但仍低于2019年的水平。这就是为什么我觉得今年的节日是一个复杂的场景。我们正在关注局势。”
在这三天里，从今年的丹特拉节到排灯节，两轮车行业登记了约30万辆。在10月的前25天，总注册量约为111.6万辆，预计本月约为130万辆。
2021年10月，两轮车的注册量约为100万辆，到2020年，这一数字约为110万辆。2019年，汽车注册量达到147.5万辆的峰值。
业内资深人士、JS Fourwheel Motor公司董事总经理Nikunj Sanghi表示，与过去几个月相比，两轮车市场在今年的节日期间出现了一些反弹。然而，2019年的登记数量远未达到大流行前的水平。
根据他的说法，人们应该把10月和11月放在一起来衡量实际的需求情况。与过去三年的11月相比，今年10月是节日期间的需求高峰。
在2020年和2021年，排灯节在11月，恰逢结婚季需求，是车辆登记的高峰月份。然而，今年10月的登记数量已经超过了去年的销量，我们还有一周的时间，所以10月的需求比预期的要多，而下个月只会出现结婚季的需求。”
2019年排灯节是在10月，由于实际销售额和VAHAN门户网站上注册的零售额之间存在滞后，因此在11月注册达到顶峰。但现在，印度大多数州都被VAHAN覆盖，由于数字存在，销售在几小时内就能注册。此前，在节日期间，注册时间通常为2-3个月，现在已缩短至不到2小时。
标普全球移动总监普尼特·古普塔(Puneet Gupta)表示，对于整车厂和经销商来说，这个节日季的批发情况非常好，因为某些车型的等待时间大幅缩短。由于这种汽车有售，消费者可以在节日期间收到它们。零售销售也很好。该网络的汽车库存已降至25天，而大流行前的平均库存为45天。
虽然全国范围内一些流行车型的等待期仍为12个月，但该系统的平均等待期约为3个月。他说，与过去2-3个月相比，两轮车的人气也有所反弹，今年的节日季情况更好。
前景
Maruti Suzuki的Srivastava认为，未来光伏行业可能面临许多不利因素——通胀、流动性、经济增长、大宗商品价格高企、可承受性因素。“不过，我认为，一旦有待定订单的特定型号的产量增加，我们就会了解这些待定订单的质量。”
他仍然确信，如果未来3-4个月生产正常，今年的批发将达到创纪录水平。
预计1月至3月这个季度对原始设备制造商有利。标普的古普塔表示，除了一些因素外，2023年上半年对该行业也应该有利，压力预计将在明年11月至12月出现。
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上半年FY23汽车销售分析:现代、Hero受灾最严重;塔塔、HMSI出现涨幅
本财政年度的上半年是光伏领域有史以来最好的，但入门级光伏和两轮车的担忧仍然存在。在整车厂方面，塔塔(Tata)和马恒达(Mahindra)获得了部分市场份额，而现代汽车则损失了约3个百分点。同样，Hero MotoCorp也下跌了3个百分点，而HMSI等其他公司在前六个月报告了上涨。
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As per industry<\/a> estimates, starting from Navratri (Sept 26) till Diwali (Oct 24) this year, the passenger vehicle (PV) sales were up 45% to about 4 lakh cars, growing from about 2.75 lakh last year. However, when compared to the pre-COVID festive season, the numbers are still low.
During this one month long period, the country\u2019s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki delivered about 1.87 lakh cars, against about 1.30 lakh units during festivities last year. Currently, the carmaker has pending bookings of about 4.40 lakh units while for the entire industry it stands at about 8.25 lakh.
<\/div><\/div>Shashank Srivastava<\/a>, Sr Executive Officer- Marketing & Sales, Maruti Suzuki said, \u201cThis demand is actually an accumulation of pending bookings, which is because the production schedule during the past months was not as per plan.\"
In India, the festivals drive sentiment buying and the three day auspicious period of Dhanteras, Choti Diwali and Badi Diwali garner major demand. This year, starting with Dhanteras on Oct 22 to Diwali on Oct 24, industry\u2019s PV volumes are estimated at around 54,000 units, higher than the last two years but still lower than 70,000 units in 2019.
Maruti Suzuki delivered about 23,000 cars, against about 20,000 units last year. In 2019, this was at 30,000 units.
\u201cSo that's like a 10% increase over last year, but still less than 2019-levels. That\u2019s why I feel this year's festive season was a mixed scenario. We are watching the situation,\u201d said Srivastava.
During the three days, starting from Dhanteras to Diwali this year, the two wheeler industry registered about 3 lakh units. For the first 25 days of October, the total registrations stands at about 11.56 lakh units and it is expected to close at around 13 lakh for the month.
In October 2021, two wheeler registrations were about 10 lakh units for the month and in 2020, this was about 11 lakh. In 2019, the registrations peaked at 14.75 lakh units.
In India, the festivals drive sentiment buying and the three day auspicious period of Dhanteras, Choti Diwali and Badi Diwali garner major demand. This year, starting with Dhanteras on Oct 22 to Diwali on Oct 24, industry\u2019s PV volumes are estimated at around 54,000 units, higher than the last two years but still lower than 70,000 units in 2019.
Maruti Suzuki delivered about 23,000 cars, against about 20,000 units last year. In 2019, this was at 30,000 units.
\u201cSo that's like a 10% increase over last year, but still less than 2019-levels. That\u2019s why I feel this year's festive season was a mixed scenario. We are watching the situation,\u201d said Srivastava.
During the three days, starting from Dhanteras to Diwali this year, the two wheeler industry registered about 3 lakh units. For the first 25 days of October, the total registrations stands at about 11.56 lakh units and it is expected to close at around 13 lakh for the month.
In October 2021, two wheeler registrations were about 10 lakh units for the month and in 2020, this was about 11 lakh. In 2019, the registrations peaked at 14.75 lakh units.
<\/div><\/div>For November 2021, two wheeler registrations stood at 14.5 lakh units and in 2020 it was at 14.85 lakh units. In November 2019, it peaked at 18.24 lakh units, far from what is expected in November this year.
Nikunj Sanghi, industry veteran and managing director, JS Fourwheel Motor, said that compared to the past few months, the two wheeler segment saw some bounce back during this year\u2019s festive season. However, the registrations were far from reaching the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
According to him, one shall look at October and November together to gauge the actual demand scenario. This year, October has seen peak demand during the festive season compared to the last three years, when peak was seen in November.
In 2020 and 2021, Diwali was in the month of November which coincided with the marriage season demand and turned out to be the peak month for vehicle registrations. However, this year October registrations have already surpassed last year's sales and we still have a week to go, so October has seen more demand than it is expected in the next month, which will only see marriage season demand, he said.
For 2019 when Diwali was in October, registrations peaked in November due to a lag between actual sales and retail sales being registered on the VAHAN portal. But now, the majority of Indian states are covered under VAHAN and sales are being registered within hours due to digital presence. Earlier, the time lag for registrations used to be 2-3 months during the festive months, which has now reduced to less than 2 hours.
Puneet Gupta, Director, S&P Global Mobility said, this festive season was really good in terms of wholesales for OEMs and dealers as the waiting periods on certain models have come down significantly. Since the cars were available, consumers got them delivered during festivals. Retail sales have also been good. The inventory in the network has come down to 25 days for cars, as against the average inventory of 45 days pre-pandemic.
While some popular models still have a waiting period of 12 months across the country, the average waiting period in the system is around 3 months. Compared to the last 2-3 months, the sentiment for two wheelers has also bounced back and this festive season has been better, he said.
Outlook<\/strong>
Going forward, Srivastava of Maruti Suzuki belives there are many possible headwinds for the PV segment -- inflation, liquidity, economic growth, high commodity prices, affordability factor. \u201cHowever, I think once the production increases for specific models which have pending bookings, then we will get to know also the quality of these pending bookings.\u201d
He remains certain of seeing record level wholesales for this year if the next 3-4 months witness normal production.
The January to March quarter is expected to be good for OEMs. Except a few factors, H1 2023 should also be good for the industry, the pressure is expected in Nov-Dec next year, said Gupta of S&P.
Also Read: <\/strong>
Nikunj Sanghi, industry veteran and managing director, JS Fourwheel Motor, said that compared to the past few months, the two wheeler segment saw some bounce back during this year\u2019s festive season. However, the registrations were far from reaching the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
According to him, one shall look at October and November together to gauge the actual demand scenario. This year, October has seen peak demand during the festive season compared to the last three years, when peak was seen in November.
In 2020 and 2021, Diwali was in the month of November which coincided with the marriage season demand and turned out to be the peak month for vehicle registrations. However, this year October registrations have already surpassed last year's sales and we still have a week to go, so October has seen more demand than it is expected in the next month, which will only see marriage season demand, he said.
For 2019 when Diwali was in October, registrations peaked in November due to a lag between actual sales and retail sales being registered on the VAHAN portal. But now, the majority of Indian states are covered under VAHAN and sales are being registered within hours due to digital presence. Earlier, the time lag for registrations used to be 2-3 months during the festive months, which has now reduced to less than 2 hours.
Puneet Gupta, Director, S&P Global Mobility said, this festive season was really good in terms of wholesales for OEMs and dealers as the waiting periods on certain models have come down significantly. Since the cars were available, consumers got them delivered during festivals. Retail sales have also been good. The inventory in the network has come down to 25 days for cars, as against the average inventory of 45 days pre-pandemic.
While some popular models still have a waiting period of 12 months across the country, the average waiting period in the system is around 3 months. Compared to the last 2-3 months, the sentiment for two wheelers has also bounced back and this festive season has been better, he said.
Outlook<\/strong>
Going forward, Srivastava of Maruti Suzuki belives there are many possible headwinds for the PV segment -- inflation, liquidity, economic growth, high commodity prices, affordability factor. \u201cHowever, I think once the production increases for specific models which have pending bookings, then we will get to know also the quality of these pending bookings.\u201d
He remains certain of seeing record level wholesales for this year if the next 3-4 months witness normal production.
The January to March quarter is expected to be good for OEMs. Except a few factors, H1 2023 should also be good for the industry, the pressure is expected in Nov-Dec next year, said Gupta of S&P.
Also Read: <\/strong>