易汽车原创:随着CNG卡车的普及，CV行业是否出现了复苏的迹象?
包括卡车利用率、运价和跨部门销售组合在内的领先指标表明，卡车销售即将复苏。CV融资方催收效率的提高和CNG卡车的吸引力将有助于推动该行业从22财年第二季度开始实现稳定增长。
作者:Kaushik Narayan
商用车行业在2021年6月恢复增长，销量增长85%(与20年6月相比)。市场趋势表明，该行业正在出现一些复苏的萌芽。这些因素包括卡车利用率提高、运费上涨、销售组合改善、EMI回收增加以及对使用CNG等替代燃料的卡车的需求。这些数据表明，从22财年第二季度开始，中国经济有稳定增长的潜力。
22财年第一季度(与21财年第一季度相比)的增长也达到了令人印象深刻的230%。所有主要的简历制造商都公布了令人印象深刻的增长Ashok Leyland而且塔塔汽车(Tata Motors)，增长超过350%。
然而，第二波新冠肺炎疫情对简历行业的影响依然严重。CV客户继续与EMI付款、不断上涨的投入成本(包括柴油价格)和较低的运费作斗争。
该行业仍远未恢复正常。将目前的业绩与20财年的业绩进行比较，就可以清楚地看出这一点。尽管20财年对简历来说是一个低基数年，但与20财年相比，22财年第一季度的行业交易量下降了50%以上。这清楚地表明，虽然封锁2.0比封锁1.0更好，但CV数量继续落后。
马欣德拉和马鲁蒂的销量下降了34%以上，而同期其他制造商的销量下降了54%以上。尽管公共汽车在FY22年第一季度比FY20年第一季度下降了87%，但SCV车型的表现最好，在同一时间段内仅下降了37%。
CV销售额在FY22第一季度增长230%
对6月21日的以下领先指标的分析证实了从22财年第二季度开始CV部门将稳步复苏的乐观情绪。
改善卡车利用率
在快速消费品、电子商务、工业产品和建筑材料等领域的销售增长提高了21年6月卡车的使用率。这一点在6月份E-way票据的增长中得到了明显的体现，与21月份相比，6月份E-way票据的日平均发送量为183万张，增长了38%。这接近12个月以来的日均E-way账单187万件。这预示着22财年第二季度就业利用率的强劲增长，进而将重新点燃对简历的需求。
2021年6月的日均商品及服务税账单达到了过去12个月的平均值
来源:GSTIN, Leaptrucks
提高运费和旅行/卡车
根据ITFRT 2021年6月的数据，主要干线线路的旅行次数和运费也都有强劲增长。在德里-孟买-德里的线路上，ITFRT估计平均旅行次数从2.75次增加到3.5次。与此同时，多轴卡车的往返运费也上涨了15%以上，从96,500印度卢比上涨到110,000印度卢比。
2021年6月，孟买、德里、孟买和卡车租赁公司的旅行数量有所增长
跨部门销售组合的增长
从FY22年第一季度到FY21年第一季度，按部门划分的CVs销售组合发生了显著变化。去年，只有SCV部分在季度末获得了一些势头(见下图)。然而，今年我们明显看到了3个领域的积极势头，而去年只有1个领域。HCV部分(去年的21% vs. 2%)和LCV部分(去年的9% vs. 6%)和SCV部分也比去年有了一个更好的开始。这预示着从FY22第二季度开始，简历行业的各个领域都将出现良好的增长。
22财年第一季度，M&HCV和L&ICV部门的销售组合有积极改善
简历金融家的数量上升
简历金融家受到了文件旅行限制和托收挑战的影响，对大多数银行和nbfc来说，这一比例已经下降到50%到75%之间。到21年6月底，旅行限制已经明显放松，从21年5月起，收税工作也有所改善。21年6月，只有少数几家金融公司积极为客户购买新卡车提供融资。由于汽车融资面临的大多数挑战现在已经缓解，从7月21日开始，客户应该能够看到更多的融资选择。
公共汽车市场仍在苦苦挣扎
在20财年第一季度占CV总量25%以上的客车市场，今年同期已降至3%。学校继续关闭，许多办公室继续在家办公，严重影响了公共汽车的销售。同样，旅游巴士也没有开始运营。公共汽车也受到了社会距离规范和明显减少的乘车量的影响。学校和大学的开放将标志着这一领域的命运逆转，最早可能在第三波没有到来的情况下，于22财年第三季度开始。
客车销量从20财年第一季度的25%下降到22财年第一季度的3%
对使用替代燃料的卡车的需求
随着柴油价格的持续上涨，对电动汽车和CNG汽车的需求似乎也在增加。大多数最后一英里的快递公司和电子商务公司一直在扩大或鼓励在其运营商车队中增加电动三轮车。我们也看到了迷你SCV在为最后一英里运输提供电动汽车方面的巨大机遇。
与此同时，CNG汽车在SCV和L&ICV领域的销量也在上升。在德里NCR市场取得成功的制造商看到了印度各地对该产品的强劲需求。在印度，CNG的价格从43卢比到68卢比不等，而目前柴油的价格超过每升100卢比。根据运营城市的价格，运营商可以节省29%到51%的CNG卡车费用。要想在市场上获得更高渗透率，唯一的挑战是天然气基础设施，尤其是高速公路，这在印度也正在迅速赶上。
印度主要城市的CNG价格要便宜29%到51%
前进的道路
综上所述，许多领先指标都表明简历行业正在稳步复苏。随着跨多个行业货物运输需求的增长，卡车利用率将在22财年第二季度继续增长。这也预示着运费的进一步上涨，这将帮助卡车运营商在投入成本上升的情况下实现盈利。
与此同时，在21年6月，CV金融家的催收效率显著提高。这将有助于改善运营商获得贷款的途径，从而使他们更容易获得购买新卡车的资金。CNG汽车运营成本较低且更环保，其吸引力也将推动更换需求。虽然挑战将继续影响该行业，特别是如果出现重大的第三波浪潮，但我们对简历行业的强劲复苏持乐观态度。
请注意：Kaushik Narayan是Leaptrucks的首席执行官
(免责声明:本文仅代表作者个人观点，ETAuto.com并不订阅。易车网不会对直接或间接给任何人/机构造成的任何损害负责。)
商用车行业在2021年6月恢复增长，销量增长85%(与20年6月相比)。市场趋势表明，该行业正在出现一些复苏的萌芽。这些因素包括卡车利用率提高、运费上涨、销售组合改善、EMI回收增加以及对使用CNG等替代燃料的卡车的需求。这些数据表明，从22财年第二季度开始，中国经济有稳定增长的潜力。
22财年第一季度(与21财年第一季度相比)的增长也达到了令人印象深刻的230%。所有主要的简历制造商都公布了令人印象深刻的增长Ashok Leyland而且塔塔汽车(Tata Motors)，增长超过350%。
CV客户继续与EMI付款、不断上涨的投入成本(包括柴油价格)和较低的运费作斗争～
然而，第二波新冠肺炎疫情对简历行业的影响依然严重。CV客户继续与EMI付款、不断上涨的投入成本(包括柴油价格)和较低的运费作斗争。
该行业仍远未恢复正常。将目前的业绩与20财年的业绩进行比较，就可以清楚地看出这一点。尽管20财年对简历来说是一个低基数年，但与20财年相比，22财年第一季度的行业交易量下降了50%以上。这清楚地表明，虽然封锁2.0比封锁1.0更好，但CV数量继续落后。
马欣德拉和马鲁蒂的销量下降了34%以上，而同期其他制造商的销量下降了54%以上。尽管公共汽车在FY22年第一季度比FY20年第一季度下降了87%，但SCV车型的表现最好，在同一时间段内仅下降了37%。
对6月21日的以下领先指标的分析证实了从22财年第二季度开始CV部门将稳步复苏的乐观情绪。
改善卡车利用率
在快速消费品、电子商务、工业产品和建筑材料等领域的销售增长提高了21年6月卡车的使用率。这一点在6月份E-way票据的增长中得到了明显的体现，与21月份相比，6月份E-way票据的日平均发送量为183万张，增长了38%。这接近12个月以来的日均E-way账单187万件。这预示着22财年第二季度就业利用率的强劲增长，进而将重新点燃对简历的需求。
来源:GSTIN, Leaptrucks
提高运费和旅行/卡车
根据ITFRT 2021年6月的数据，主要干线线路的旅行次数和运费也都有强劲增长。在德里-孟买-德里的线路上，ITFRT估计平均旅行次数从2.75次增加到3.5次。与此同时，多轴卡车的往返运费也上涨了15%以上，从96,500印度卢比上涨到110,000印度卢比。
跨部门销售组合的增长
从FY22年第一季度到FY21年第一季度，按部门划分的CVs销售组合发生了显著变化。去年，只有SCV部分在季度末获得了一些势头(见下图)。然而，今年我们明显看到了3个领域的积极势头，而去年只有1个领域。HCV部分(去年的21% vs. 2%)和LCV部分(去年的9% vs. 6%)和SCV部分也比去年有了一个更好的开始。这预示着从FY22第二季度开始，简历行业的各个领域都将出现良好的增长。
简历金融家的数量上升
简历金融家受到了文件旅行限制和托收挑战的影响，对大多数银行和nbfc来说，这一比例已经下降到50%到75%之间。到21年6月底，旅行限制已经明显放松，从21年5月起，收税工作也有所改善。21年6月，只有少数几家金融公司积极为客户购买新卡车提供融资。由于汽车融资面临的大多数挑战现在已经缓解，从7月21日开始，客户应该能够看到更多的融资选择。
由于汽车融资面临的大多数挑战现在已经缓解，从7月21日开始，客户应该能够看到更多的融资选择～
公共汽车市场仍在苦苦挣扎
在20财年第一季度占CV总量25%以上的客车市场，今年同期已降至3%。学校继续关闭，许多办公室继续在家办公，严重影响了公共汽车的销售。同样，旅游巴士也没有开始运营。公共汽车也受到了社会距离规范和明显减少的乘车量的影响。学校和大学的开放将标志着这一领域的命运逆转，最早可能在第三波没有到来的情况下，于22财年第三季度开始。
对使用替代燃料的卡车的需求
随着柴油价格的持续上涨，对电动汽车和CNG汽车的需求似乎也在增加。大多数最后一英里的快递公司和电子商务公司一直在扩大或鼓励在其运营商车队中增加电动三轮车。我们也看到了迷你SCV在为最后一英里运输提供电动汽车方面的巨大机遇。
与此同时，CNG汽车在SCV和L&ICV领域的销量也在上升。在德里NCR市场取得成功的制造商看到了印度各地对该产品的强劲需求。在印度，CNG的价格从43卢比到68卢比不等，而目前柴油的价格超过每升100卢比。根据运营城市的价格，运营商可以节省29%到51%的CNG卡车费用。要想在市场上获得更高渗透率，唯一的挑战是天然气基础设施，尤其是高速公路，这在印度也正在迅速赶上。
前进的道路
综上所述，许多领先指标都表明简历行业正在稳步复苏。随着跨多个行业货物运输需求的增长，卡车利用率将在22财年第二季度继续增长。这也预示着运费的进一步上涨，这将帮助卡车运营商在投入成本上升的情况下实现盈利。
与此同时，在21年6月，CV金融家的催收效率显著提高。这将有助于改善运营商获得贷款的途径，从而使他们更容易获得购买新卡车的资金。CNG汽车运营成本较低且更环保，其吸引力也将推动更换需求。虽然挑战将继续影响该行业，特别是如果出现重大的第三波浪潮，但我们对简历行业的强劲复苏持乐观态度。
请注意：Kaushik Narayan是Leaptrucks的首席执行官
(免责声明:本文仅代表作者个人观点，ETAuto.com并不订阅。易车网不会对直接或间接给任何人/机构造成的任何损害负责。)
By Kaushik Narayan<\/strong><\/em>
Commercial vehicle industry returned to growth track in June 2021 with 85% increase in sales (vs. June \u201920). The market trends indicate that the industry is seeing some green shoots of recovery. They stem from factors like better truck utilisation, rising freight rates, improved sales-mix, increasing EMI collections, and the demand for trucks running on alternative fuels like CNG. They indicate the potential for steady growth from Q2 FY22.
The Q1 FY22 (vs. Q1 FY21) growth was also an impressive 230%. All major CV manufacturers posted impressive growth led by Ashok Leyland<\/a> and Tata Motors<\/a>, which grew by over 350%.
Commercial vehicle industry returned to growth track in June 2021 with 85% increase in sales (vs. June \u201920). The market trends indicate that the industry is seeing some green shoots of recovery. They stem from factors like better truck utilisation, rising freight rates, improved sales-mix, increasing EMI collections, and the demand for trucks running on alternative fuels like CNG. They indicate the potential for steady growth from Q2 FY22.
The Q1 FY22 (vs. Q1 FY21) growth was also an impressive 230%. All major CV manufacturers posted impressive growth led by Ashok Leyland<\/a> and Tata Motors<\/a>, which grew by over 350%.
<\/div><\/div>
The CV customers continue to grapple with EMI payments, rising input costs, including diesel prices, and low freight rates~<\/cite><\/div><\/blockquote>
However, the impact of Covid-19 wave 2 continues to be severe on the CV industry. The CV customers continue to grapple with EMI payments, rising input costs, including diesel prices, and low freight rates.
The industry is still far away from normalcy. This will be clear from a comparison of the present with the performance in FY20. Though FY20 is a low base year for CVs, the industry volumes are down by over 50% in Q1 FY22 vs. Q1 FY20. This clearly indicates that while lockdown 2.0 was better than lockdown 1.0, CV volumes continue to lag behind.
Mahindra and Maruti have dropped volumes by over 34% while other manufacturers are down over 54% in the same period. While buses fell over 87% in Q1 FY22 over Q1 FY20, the SCV segment performed the best with a drop of only 37% in the same timeframe.CV Sales grow by 230% in Q1 FY22<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
An analysis of the following leading indicators from June \u201921 corroborates the optimism of a steady recovery in the CV segment starting Q2 FY22.
Improved truck utilisation<\/strong>
Growth in sales of products in the FMCG, e-commerce, industrial goods and the construction material segment among others has improved the utilisation of trucks in June \u201921. This is evident in the growth of E-way bills in June which have grown by 38% vs. May \u201921 to a daily average of 1.83 million. This was nearly equal to the 12-month average daily E-way bill generated at 1.87 million. This bodes well for a strong Q2 FY22 in utilisation which in turn will reignite the demand for CVs.<\/div><\/div>Average GST Bills per day in June 2021 reached the average for the past 12 months<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Source: GSTIN, Leaptrucks<\/em>
Increasing freight rates and trips \/ truck<\/strong>
Both the number of trips and the freight rates in key trunk routes have also grown strongly as per the data from ITFRT for June 2021. In the Delhi \u2013 Mumbai -Delhi route, ITFRT estimates that the average number of trips has increased from 2.75 to 3.5. At the same time, freight rates for a round trip for the multi axle trucks have also increased by over 15% from INR 96,500 to INR 1,10,000.Number of trips for Mumbai Delhi Mumbai and Truck Rentals grew in June 2021<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Growth in sales-mix across segments<\/strong>
The mix of CVs sold by segment has significantly changed between Q1 FY22 and Q1 FY21. Last Year, only the SCV segment had gained some momentum at the end of the quarter (see the chart below). However, this year, we clearly see positive momentum across 3 segments vs. just 1 last year. Both the HCV segment (21% vs. 2% Last Year) and the LCV segment (9% vs. 6% Last Year) have also got off to a better start than last year along with the SCV segment. This bodes well for growth across segments in the CV industry starting with Q2 FY22.Sales mix in Q1 FY22 has improved positively for the M&HCV and L&ICV segments<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Rise in collections of CV financiers<\/strong>
CV financiers were impacted by both the restrictions in travel for documentation and the challenges in collection which had fallen to between 50% and 75% for most banks and NBFCs. By the end of June \u201921, travel restrictions had eased significantly and collections had improved from May \u201921. In June \u201921, only a handful of financiers were actively financing new truck purchases for customers. As most challenges faced in accessing vehicle financing have now eased, customers should be able to see more options for financing starting July \u201921.As most challenges faced in accessing vehicle financing have now eased, customers should be able to see more options for financing starting July \u201921~<\/cite><\/div><\/blockquote>
Bus segment continues to struggle<\/strong>
The bus segment, which made up over 25% of the CV volume in Q1 FY\u201920 has fallen to 3% in the same time this year. Schools continuing to be closed and many offices continuing to operate from home have significantly impacted sales of buses. Similarly, tourist buses have not started operating. Route buses have also been impacted by social distancing norms and significantly lower collection. Opening up of schools and colleges will signal a reversal in fortune in this segment which may start as early as Q3 FY22 in the absence of a Wave 3.Bus sales have dropped from 25% in Q1FY20 to 3% in Q1 FY22<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Demand for trucks operating on alternative fuels<\/strong>
As diesel prices continue to increase, the demand for electric and CNG vehicles appears to be increasing. Most of the last-mile delivery players and e-commerce companies have been expanding or encouraging the addition of electric 3-wheelers in their operator fleet. We also see a large opportunity in the mini SCV segment to provide electric vehicles for the last mile transportation.
At the same time, CNG vehicle sales are also rising in the SCV and L&ICV space. Manufacturers who have been successful in the Delhi NCR market are seeing strong demand for this offering across India. CNG prices range from INR 43 to INR 68 kg across India vs. current diesel prices of over INR 100 \/ litre. Operators can save between 29% and 51% on CNG trucks depending on prices in their city of operation.The only challenge to higher penetration in the market is the CNG infrastructure, especially on highways, which is also catching up quickly pan India.CNG is 29% to 51% cheaper across major cities in India<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>
Way forward<\/strong>
In summary, many leading indicators point to a steady recovery in the CV segment. With growing demand for movement of goods across multiple sectors, truck utilisation will continue to grow in Q2 FY22. This also bodes well for further increase in freight rates which will help truck operators become profitable despite rising input costs.
At the same time, in June \u201921, collection efficiency improved significantly across CV financiers. This will help improve access to loans for operators which will in turn make it easier for them to access funds to buy new trucks. The attractiveness of CNG vehicles which have a lower cost of operation along with being greener will also drive replacement demand. While challenges will continue to impact the industry, especially if there is a significant Wave 3, we are optimistic about a strong recovery in the CV industry.
Note<\/em>: Kaushik Narayan is the CEO of Leaptrucks<\/em>
(DISCLAIMER: The views expressed are solely of the author and ETAuto.com does not necessarily subscribe to it. ETAuto.com shall not be responsible for any damage caused to any person\/organisation directly or indirectly.)<\/em><\/b>
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