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轮胎公司的RoCE可能翻倍;阿波罗轮胎和Balkrishna Industries可以提供12-20%的回报
自地缘政治问题爆发和利率收紧以来，轮胎制造商主要专注于增加资产和控制资本支出。
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塔塔汽车获得埃弗拉2000辆XPRES电动汽车订单
这些车辆是现有的塔塔汽车电动汽车车队的一个补充与聚合器。
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在过去15-18个月见证了关键投入成本的恶性通胀后，轮胎行业正看到天然橡胶和原油价格的放缓，而合成橡胶和炭黑价格则滞后。
这预示着利润率将从23财年第二季度开始复苏。
自地缘政治问题爆发和利率收紧以来，轮胎制造商主要专注于增加资产和控制资本支出。
但现在，天然橡胶的价格似乎在2022年6月中旬见顶。天然橡胶现货价格(泰国现货/RSS4 Kottayam)较23年第一季度平均价格下跌34%/12.5%。
合成橡胶和炭黑的价格仍比23年第一季度的平均价格高出6-7%，但这反映了22年第一季度原油价格上涨的延迟影响。
由于基础原油价格已经从23年第一季度的平均水平上修正了22%，合成橡胶和炭黑的价格应该会出现滞后。
天然橡胶和原油价格的大幅回调将推动利润率从23年第三季度的大幅回升和每股收益的上调。我们预计利润率将从23财年第二财年开始回升，因潜在RM价格将走软。
据我们估计，天然橡胶/合成橡胶/炭黑价格每变化10%(高于22财年的平均水平)，息税折旧摊销前利润将变化160bp/80bp/100bp。
在22财年的基础上，我们预计24财年混合毛利率将增长约190bp(比23财年+300bp)。我们的毛利率估计表明，到25财年，平均回归到36.8%(其10年平均水平)
PCR和2W段的替换需求保持良好。然而，卡车和公共汽车(T&B)和拖拉机的更换需求相对较弱。
我们与行业参与者的互动表明，随着通胀的噪音逐渐减弱，从23财年第3季度开始，培训和福利需求应该会出现复苏。
在高通胀环境下经历了两年的深度痛苦之后，我们看到这些不利因素正在减弱，从而推动利润率从23财年第二财年开始复苏，并上调盈利。
我们预计FCF产生将大幅改善，财务杠杆率将下降，资本使用回报率(RoCE)将改善。我们预计主流轮胎玩家的RoCE将在22财年增长一倍以上，达到11%左右(过去5年平均速度低于9%)。
阿波罗轮胎是我们的首选beplay003因为它提供了盈利增长和廉价估值的最佳组合:
阿波罗轮胎:买入| LTP 289卢比，目标325卢比，上涨12%
阿波罗轮胎处于有利地位，拥有强大的竞争地位，并准备好从卡车、客车和子午线轮胎(TBR)和乘用车子午线轮胎(PCR)在OEM和更换部门的强劲复苏中受益。
受其印度和欧洲业务强劲增长的推动，该公司在22- 25e财年可能实现10%的年复合增长率。我们估计22-25财年8%的年复合增长率和4%的价格变现年复合增长率。
与同行相比，阿波罗轮胎(Apollo Tyre)提供了最佳的盈利增长和廉价估值组合。
Balkrishna行业:买入| LTP 1918卢比，目标2300卢比，上涨20%
我们预计基本脉冲电平得益于产品组合的扩大和越野轮胎(OTR)领域的提升，该公司在特种轮胎行业的优异表现将持续下去，并有余地加强其竞争定位。
我们估计，在22- 25e财年，BIL的营收/EBITDA/PAT将增长15%/16%/13%。
(作者是零售研究主管，奥斯瓦尔金融服务公司．推荐、建议、观点和意见都是他自己的。以上不代表《经济时报》观点)
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After witnessing hyperinflation in its key input cost over the last 15-18 months, the tyre industry is seeing moderation in natural rubber as well as crude prices with a lag in synthetic rubber and carbon black prices.
This augurs well for a margin recovery from 2HFY23.
Since the breakout of geopolitical issues and tightening of interest rates, tyre makers were largely focused on sweating assets and controlling capex.
<\/div><\/div>This is reflected in capacity utilisation of 80-90% across players in 1QFY23. Key input prices had seen an incessant increase over 50% since 1HFY21, with the average RM basket costing around Rs 180\/kg, resulting in an over 10pp fall in gross margin.
But now the natural rubber prices appear to have peaked out in mid-June 2022. Spot prices for natural rubber (Thailand spot\/RSS4 Kottayam) fell 34%\/12.5% from its 1QFY23 average.
Synthetic rubber and carbon black prices are still 6-7% higher over its 1QFY23 average but it\u2019s a reflection of the delayed impact of crude oil price inflation in 1HCY22.
Since underlying crude oil prices have corrected by 22% from its 1QFY23 average, it should reflect with a lag in both synthetic rubber and carbon black prices.
A sharp correction in natural rubber and crude prices to drive a sharp margin recovery from 3QFY23 and EPS upgrades. We expect margin to recover from 2HFY23, with a softening in underlying RM prices.
As per our estimates, for every 10% change in natural rubber\/synthetic rubber\/ carbon black prices (over its FY22 average), EBITDA margin will change by 160bp\/80bp\/100bp.
On an FY22 base, we expect blended gross margin to expand by ~190bp in FY24 (+300bp over FY23E). Our gross margin estimate implies a mean reversion to ~36.8% (its 10-year average) by FY25
But now the natural rubber prices appear to have peaked out in mid-June 2022. Spot prices for natural rubber (Thailand spot\/RSS4 Kottayam) fell 34%\/12.5% from its 1QFY23 average.
Synthetic rubber and carbon black prices are still 6-7% higher over its 1QFY23 average but it\u2019s a reflection of the delayed impact of crude oil price inflation in 1HCY22.
Since underlying crude oil prices have corrected by 22% from its 1QFY23 average, it should reflect with a lag in both synthetic rubber and carbon black prices.
A sharp correction in natural rubber and crude prices to drive a sharp margin recovery from 3QFY23 and EPS upgrades. We expect margin to recover from 2HFY23, with a softening in underlying RM prices.
As per our estimates, for every 10% change in natural rubber\/synthetic rubber\/ carbon black prices (over its FY22 average), EBITDA margin will change by 160bp\/80bp\/100bp.
On an FY22 base, we expect blended gross margin to expand by ~190bp in FY24 (+300bp over FY23E). Our gross margin estimate implies a mean reversion to ~36.8% (its 10-year average) by FY25
<\/div><\/div>While demand from OEMs improves across categories, replacement demand has been a mixed bag.
Replacement demand is holding up well for the PCR and 2W segments. However, replacement demand is relatively weak for truck and bus (T&B) and tractors.
Our interactions with the industry participants suggest that T&B demand should see a recovery from 3QFY23 onwards as the noise around inflation tapers off.
After two years of deep pain in a hyper-inflationary environment, we see these headwinds abating, thus driving a margin recovery from 2HFY23 and an earnings upgrade.
We expect a sharp improvement in FCF generation, a reduction in financial gearing, and an improvement in return on capital employed (RoCE). We expect RoCE for mainstream Tyre players is expected to more than double over FY22 to ~11% (v\/s an average of sub-9% over the last five years).
Apollo Tyre is our preferred play on tyres<\/a> as it offers the best blend of earnings growth and cheap valuations:
Apollo Tyres<\/a>: Buy | LTP Rs 289 | Target Rs 325 | Upside 12%<\/strong>
Apollo Tyre is well placed, with a strong competitive positioning as well as ready capacities to benefit from the strong recovery in truck, bus and radial tyres (TBR) and passenger car radial tyres (PCR) in the OEM and replacement segments.
Driven by strong growth across its Indian and European operations, it is likely to deliver 10% revenue CAGR over FY22-25E. We estimate 8% volume CAGR over FY22-25 and 4% CAGR in price realisations.
As compared to its peers, Apollo Tyre offers the best blend of earnings growth and cheap valuations.
Balkrishna Industries<\/a>: Buy | LTP Rs 1,918 | Target Rs 2,300| Upside 20%<\/strong>
We expect BIL<\/a>\u2019s outperformance to the specialty tyre industry to continue, driven by expansion of its product portfolio and ramp-up in the Off the Road tyres (OTR) segment, with scope to strengthen its competitive positioning.
We estimate revenue\/EBITDA\/PAT for BIL to grow at 15%\/16%\/13% over FY22-25E.
(The author is Head \u2013 Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services<\/a>. Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions are his own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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Replacement demand is holding up well for the PCR and 2W segments. However, replacement demand is relatively weak for truck and bus (T&B) and tractors.
Our interactions with the industry participants suggest that T&B demand should see a recovery from 3QFY23 onwards as the noise around inflation tapers off.
After two years of deep pain in a hyper-inflationary environment, we see these headwinds abating, thus driving a margin recovery from 2HFY23 and an earnings upgrade.
We expect a sharp improvement in FCF generation, a reduction in financial gearing, and an improvement in return on capital employed (RoCE). We expect RoCE for mainstream Tyre players is expected to more than double over FY22 to ~11% (v\/s an average of sub-9% over the last five years).
Apollo Tyre is our preferred play on tyres<\/a> as it offers the best blend of earnings growth and cheap valuations:
Apollo Tyres<\/a>: Buy | LTP Rs 289 | Target Rs 325 | Upside 12%<\/strong>
Apollo Tyre is well placed, with a strong competitive positioning as well as ready capacities to benefit from the strong recovery in truck, bus and radial tyres (TBR) and passenger car radial tyres (PCR) in the OEM and replacement segments.
Driven by strong growth across its Indian and European operations, it is likely to deliver 10% revenue CAGR over FY22-25E. We estimate 8% volume CAGR over FY22-25 and 4% CAGR in price realisations.
As compared to its peers, Apollo Tyre offers the best blend of earnings growth and cheap valuations.
Balkrishna Industries<\/a>: Buy | LTP Rs 1,918 | Target Rs 2,300| Upside 20%<\/strong>
We expect BIL<\/a>\u2019s outperformance to the specialty tyre industry to continue, driven by expansion of its product portfolio and ramp-up in the Off the Road tyres (OTR) segment, with scope to strengthen its competitive positioning.
We estimate revenue\/EBITDA\/PAT for BIL to grow at 15%\/16%\/13% over FY22-25E.
(The author is Head \u2013 Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services<\/a>. Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions are his own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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