独家
汽车PLI忽略了当下;为未来设定议程
生产挂钩激励(PLI)计划的轮廓是高度未来主义的，主要关注未来技术，如电动汽车、氢燃料、无人机和一些组件。显然，从目前的印度汽车市场来看，至少在未来两到三年，它将主要服务于10%的市场，在整个五年的时间里，最多服务于20-25%的市场。
突出
你好!我刚刚来到了2030年，我无法停止欣赏印度政府在周三内阁批准后宣布的修订后的汽车行业生产挂钩激励(PLI)计划。可惜的是，该计划将于2022年生效，2027年结束。
该计划的总支出为2600亿卢比，将在未来五年内耗尽，几乎是政府去年宣布的57043亿卢比的一半。总开支包括用于无人机的12亿卢比。无人机在印度的应用还没有开始。政府声称，该计划将创造75万个就业机会，筹集4250亿卢比的投资，并产生10851亿卢比的税收。
计划分为两项:冠军OEM奖励计划，适用于电池电动汽车氢燃料电池汽车;零部件冠军奖励计划，适用于车辆的先进汽车技术零部件、完全被撞倒(CKD)/半被撞倒(SKD)套件、两轮车、三轮车、乘用车、商用车和牵引车等车辆总成。
该项目的轮廓是高度未来主义的，主要关注未来技术，如电动汽车、氢燃料和无人机和一些组件。显然，从目前的印度汽车市场来看，至少在未来两到三年，它将主要服务于10%的市场，在整个五年的时间里，最多服务于20%- 25%的市场。
目前，印度还没有一辆氢燃料汽车。信实工业有限公司(RIL)制定了未来三年在燃料电池领域投资7.5万亿卢比的计划。现代和丰田等公司也计划在印度生产氢燃料汽车。值得注意的是，即使是在发达经济体，对复杂和高成本的燃料电池汽车的需求也非常小，一份报告显示，到2020年，全球将只有8%的汽车使用该技术。
该激励计划不包括天然气、液化天然气和其他替代清洁燃料，这些燃料在印度市场上占有相当大的份额。CNG目前约占乘用车市场的12%。同样，三轮车的气化速度比其他车种更快，其CNG为37%，20%液化石油气36%柴油，4%汽油和2%的微型电动汽车。公共汽车和lcv也有相当可观的CNG和LPG渗透率。
印度面临着重大的基础设施挑战，并将混合动力视为通往电气化的一条道路。马鲁蒂铃木、本田汽车等领先公司一直在争取混合动力和压缩天然气，但在目前的情况下可能无法获得任何好处。
显然，上个月联邦道路运输和公路部长Nitin Gadkari说，“该行业必须推广替代燃料技术，并为替代燃料的研发提供资金。”他补充说，政府已经发布了2025年印度乙醇混合路线图专家委员会的报告，该报告讨论了到2025年逐步推出20%的乙醇混合汽油(E20)。
那又有什么用呢PLI方案对苦苦挣扎的汽车工业有何影响?
让我们先来看看这些数字是如何变化的。2018财年后，汽车市场增速放缓，从约2500万辆小幅增长至2019财年的2620万辆。最终，在废钞之后，由于BS-VI和其他安全规范的实施以及GST的影响，采购成本增加，市场开始下滑，并在2020财年下降到1860万套。
该行业抑制了大部分产能扩张投资，并接受了整个价值链的大量失业。然而，与此同时，起亚和MG汽车等新进入者确实发布了一些公告，但总体而言，约30%-40%的产能仍处于闲置状态，可能的复苏被毁灭性的疫情破坏了。
显然，传统(ICE)行业已经无法站稳脚跟，因此被要求迈出更大的一步。然而，这种激励肯定会给电动汽车初创企业带来动力，但当市场还没有准备好时，它们能发挥多大的作用呢?
然而，汽车零部件行业似乎处于有利地位。总体而言，汽车PLI计划可能无法解决ICE汽车制造业当前的任何危机，但它肯定为未来奠定了基调。该计划的另一个好处是，它还在国内推广了更安全的车辆。
“政府对新技术和电动汽车的支持仍在继续。在FAME II和PMP之后，PLI将进一步释放2轮和3轮电动汽车的潜力。从总拥有成本(TCO)的角度来看，pv和cv将不得不等待，直到它们获得生存能力。汽车零部件公司将看到成本竞争力的进一步提高，这将有助于将印度定位为出口中心。”
还读:
行业领袖表示，内阁批准为汽车行业提供2.6万卢比，将促进当地电动汽车制造业的发展
他们表示，这是一个指导良好的倡议，将增加清洁交通解决方案的采用，并促进新技术的本地化。
![\"](\"https:\/\/st.etb2bimg.com\/Themes\/Release\/images\/responsive\/etauto-default.jpg\")
Highlight<\/strong>
- Ignores 80% of the vehicle industry<\/a> (in the current time)<\/li>
- EVs to benefit if market acceptance increases<\/li>
- CNG<\/a>, LNG kept out of the scheme<\/li>
- Focus on safer vehicles<\/li>
- INR 120 crore for drones<\/li><\/ul>
Hello! I have just travelled to 2030 and I cannot stop appreciating the revised and trimmed Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for the automotive industry announced by the Government of India after cabinet approval on Wednesday. Alas, but the plan comes to an effect in 2022 and ends in 2027.
The scheme with a total outlay of INR 26000 crore as incentives to be exhausted over the next five years, is almost half of INR 57,043 crore announced by the Government last year. The total outlay includes INR 120 crore for the drones. Drones have not seen the beginning in India yet. The government claims that the scheme will create 7.5 lakh jobs, raise INR 42,500 crore of investment and result in INR 10,851 crore of tax collection.<\/div><\/div><\/figure>
The scheme categorised into two: Champion OEM Incentive Scheme which is applicable for Battery Electric Vehicles<\/a> and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles of all segments; and Component Champion Incentive Scheme which is for the Advanced Automotive Technology components of vehicles, Completely Knocked Down (CKD)\/ Semi Knocked Down (SKD) kits, Vehicle aggregates of 2-Wheelers, 3-Wheelers, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and tractors etc.<\/figure>
The programme\u2019s contour is highly futuristic and mostly focuses on future technology like Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen fuel and Drones and some components. Apparently, looking at the current Indian vehicle market it will mostly serve the 10% of the market at least for the next two-three years and at most 20%- 25% of the market in its full period of five years.
Currently, India doesn't have a single Hydrogen fuel-powered vehicle. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has laid down plans to invest INR 75,000 crore in fuel cells in the next three years. Companies like Hyundai and Toyota also have plans for Hydrogen Fuel vehicles in India. It's noteworthy that even in the developed economies the demand for the sophisticated and high-cost fuel-cell vehicles are minuscule and a report suggests by end of the decade only 8% vehicles globally will be powered by this technology.<\/div><\/div>As far as EVs are concerned, most optimistically the electric vehicles will not be more than 2.4 lakh units of almost 2.2 crore units expected in the market this year. It right away ignores the present 98% of the OEM or vehicle market.<\/figure><\/figure>
The incentive plan doesn\u2019t include CNG, LNG and other alternative cleaner fuels which have substantial presence in the Indian market. CNG currently contributes about 12% of the total passenger vehicle market. Similarly, three wheeler segment which is catching up with electrification faster than other segments, has 37% CNG, 20% LPG<\/a>, 36% Diesel, 4% petrol and tiny 2% EVs. Buses and LCVs also have reasonably notable percentage of CNG and LPG penetration.
India which has major infrastructure challenges and looks at hybrid as an en-route to electrification and leading companies like Maruti Suzuki, Honda Cars had been pitching for Hybrid and CNG may not be able to get any benefit in the current situation.
Apparently, last month Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari said, \u201cThe industry must promote alternative fuel technologies and fund R&D (research and development) for alternative fuels,\u201d He added that the Government has released the report of the Expert Committee on Roadmap for Ethanol Blending in India by 2025, which discusses the gradual roll-out of 20 per cent ethanol blending in petrol (E20) by 2025.
So what good will the PLI scheme<\/a> do to the struggling automotive industry?
Let's first see the numbers how they have been changing over the years. After FY2018 the automobile market saw a moderation in the growth rate and from about 25 million units it marginally grew to 26.2 million units in FY2019. Eventually, in the aftermath of demonetisation, increase in cost of acquisition due to implementation of BS-VI and other safety norms and GST impact the market started sliding and in FY2020 it dipped to 18.6 million units.
The industry held back the majority of the capacity expansion investment and embraced a large number of job losses across the value chain. However, in the meantime new entrants like Kia and MG Motors did make some announcements but overall about 30%-40% of the capacity remained idle and the possible recovery was marred by the devastating pandemic.
Obviously, the traditional (ICE) industry which is not in a position to stand strong on its feet has been asked to take a wide leap. However, the incentive will certainly give momentum to EV startups but how much they can leverage when the market is not ready.<\/figure>
However, the auto component industry looks to be in an advantageous position. Overall the automotive PLI scheme may fail to address any of the current crises of the ICE vehicle manufacturing industry but it certainly sets the tone for the future. The other best part of the scheme is that it also promotes safer vehicles in the country.
\u201cGovernment support for newer technologies and EVs continue. Post FAME II and PMP, PLI will further unleash the potential for EVs in 2 and 3 wheelers. PVs and CVs will have to wait till they attain viability from a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) perspective. Automotive component companies to see further improvement in cost competitiveness and will help position India as an export hub,\" said Hemal Thakkar, Director, CRISIL Research.
Also Read:
<\/em><\/strong>