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印度盯着电力中断，电动汽车是否会在未来增加其本已紧张的电力部门的负担?
即使电动汽车成为主流，它们对电力的累积需求也只占印度总发电能力的一小部分。电力行业实际上需要更多的消费者，但令人担忧的是，电网是否足够灵活，可以处理电动汽车。
反过来，出现的问题是，电力部门是否有能力将汽车列入其消费者名单。这听起来像是一个合乎逻辑的担忧，但没有什么比这更错位了。
即使电动汽车如果成为主流，对电力的需求将只占该国总发电能力的一小部分。目前，印度的电力装机容量为382吉瓦，其中火电占234吉瓦。在未来5-6年，铁砧上至少有27吉瓦的新火力发电能力。在可再生能源领域——太阳能和风能，新增产能将大幅增加。
“电动汽车带来的电力消耗增长不会一蹴而就，而是循序渐进的。说电动汽车的广泛使用将导致电力短缺是错误的，”CARE Ratings副主管Sudhir Kumar说。“印度也在增加可再生能源领域的发电能力，我们计划到本十年末，在火电领域的发电能力达到450吉瓦。”
不过有一个问题。电动汽车的广泛使用将给国家电网带来一种不同的压力，其峰值不同且更加强烈。解决这个问题是一个更大的挑战，需要电网更大的灵活性。布鲁金斯估计，在电动汽车普及和慢速、中速和快速充电的不同场景下，电动汽车的总充电(或功率输入)容量在334吉瓦至1814吉瓦之间。即使是334吉瓦，电动汽车也将占到全国所有终端使用部门电力设备和设备总负载能力的近四分之一。
如果电网不升级，电动汽车真的会破坏电网的稳定。这个示例。正常电网负荷年总负荷能力与有效负荷利用率的比值接近5;而电动汽车的耗电量则在80到160之间。它会给即时需求带来波动。
“没有第二条路可走。电网必须是智能和灵活的，”总部位于华盛顿的智库战略与国际研究中心(Centre for Strategic and International Studies)高级研究主管桑迪普·派(Sandeep Pai)博士说。“这需要分销公司进行投资，但没有投资就没有其他办法。随着到处都是慢速充电器和快速充电器，以及许多汽车在家里充电，峰值在电力需求将是一个不同的性质。传统的电网没有足够的设备来应对这种情况，它将会崩溃，而不是因为缺乏电力。”
事实上，这也有一线希望。由于电厂的负荷系数徘徊在55%到60%之间，火电厂目前效率低下，需要更高的消耗。电动汽车就是一个可以做到这一点的新类别。
由于电厂的负荷系数徘徊在55%到60%之间，火电厂目前效率低下，需要更高的消耗。电动汽车就是一个可以做到这一点的新类别～
根据安永的一份报告电迁移预计将有助于电力和公用事业部门实现净成本和收入的利益，从需求和供应方面。
“这种经济价值的实现将取决于生态系统的有效实施，以改善电动汽车
采用和保持电网吸收的措施。还需要评估这一复杂的跨部门执行计划的风险，并减轻风险，其中最突出的风险是电网无法吸收大量电能电动汽车充电以及客户对电动汽车的看法。”
通过创新使用分时电价，它也为合理利用可再生能源提供了空间。
“在下午或深夜充电的电动汽车可以在基本负载的情况下吸收可再生能源峰值电力，以满足其余的需求。反过来，这将减少当前情况下的净负荷下降，并有助于维持一个水平的负荷曲线。”“均衡的负荷曲线将为整个价值链节省成本，提高基本负荷能力的利用率(更低的固定成本/单位)，降低对昂贵的峰值容量的需求。”
Care Ratings的库马尔表示:“我不会说电动汽车一定会帮助提高电力行业的电厂负荷系数，但我不会否认这一潜力。”“分时电价是塑造消费者行为的一个非常有用的工具。我们知道太阳能发电在白天是最好的，所以如果在那个时候提供30%的低电价，就可以鼓励消费者在那个时候给他们的汽车充电。在其他可再生能源支持较低的时候，可能会提高电价，以抑制人们为自己的汽车充电。这也是欧洲国家正在采用的模式。”
很明显，印度现在和将来都有足够的电力供应路上的任何数量的电动汽车。所有需要排序的是如何有效地传输和分配电力。
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印度10月份的电力供应缺口是2016年3月以来最严重的
北部的拉贾斯坦邦、旁遮普邦、哈里亚纳邦和北方邦，以及东部的贾坎德邦和比哈尔邦，受影响最严重，供应缺口为2.3%-14.7%。
电动汽车日:电动汽车销量将快速增长，充电网络能跟上吗?
两轮和三轮电动汽车的拐点现在已经显而易见，但该国充电基础设施的投资仍然落后。这可能构成一个巨大的障碍，甚至可能损害未来的增长。
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In turn, the question that has emerged is whether the power sector has the capacity to add automobiles to its list of consumers. It may sound like a logical concern but nothing can be more misplaced.
Even when electric vehicles<\/a> become mainstream, the demand for power would only be a fraction of the country's overall capacity. Currently, India has an installed power capacity of 382 Gigawatt (GW) of which thermal power accounts for 234 GW. There is at least 27 GW of fresh thermal power capacity on the anvil in the next 5-6 years. In the renewables space--solar and wind, capacity addition will be substantially more.
<\/div><\/div>According to a 2019 report by Brookings India<\/a>, even in an optimistic scenario of 100 percent EV sales by 2030, electricity demand from the sector would be to the tune of 97 terawatt-hour (TWh). In a more realistic scenario where EVs would account for 33 percent of overall sales, electricity demand would be 37 TWh. During the same time, Brookings estimates India's electricity production by 2030 to grow to 2074 TWh in a modest scenario and 2785 TWh in an ambitious scenario. EVs would account for not less than 1.3 percent and no more than 4.8 percent of overall electricity demand in the best and worst case scenarios.
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\"Any increase in power consumption due to EVs will not be overnight but gradual. To say that there will be a shortage of electricity due to widespread use of electric vehicles will be misplaced,\" said Sudhir Kumar, associate director, CARE Ratings. \"India is adding fresh capacity to produce power as well both in the renewable space where we plan to have a capacity of 450 GW by the end of this decade as also in the thermal power sector.\"
There is a concern though. Widespread use of EVs would put a different kind of pressure on the national grid with varying and more intense peaks. Tackling that is a bigger challenge and requires greater flexibility in the grid. Brookings estimates the EVs' aggregate charging (or power input) capacity under different scenarios of EV penetration and slow, medium and fast charging to be between 334 GW and 1,814 GW. Even at 334 GW, EVs will constitute almost a quarter of aggregate load capacities of electricity devices and equipment across all end-use sectors of the country.
<\/figure>\"Any increase in power consumption due to EVs will not be overnight but gradual. To say that there will be a shortage of electricity due to widespread use of electric vehicles will be misplaced,\" said Sudhir Kumar, associate director, CARE Ratings. \"India is adding fresh capacity to produce power as well both in the renewable space where we plan to have a capacity of 450 GW by the end of this decade as also in the thermal power sector.\"
There is a concern though. Widespread use of EVs would put a different kind of pressure on the national grid with varying and more intense peaks. Tackling that is a bigger challenge and requires greater flexibility in the grid. Brookings estimates the EVs' aggregate charging (or power input) capacity under different scenarios of EV penetration and slow, medium and fast charging to be between 334 GW and 1,814 GW. Even at 334 GW, EVs will constitute almost a quarter of aggregate load capacities of electricity devices and equipment across all end-use sectors of the country.
<\/div><\/div>\"EVs could add up to 50 per cent to peak demand and 3 percentage points to peak demand growth between 2017 and 2030. The key challenge for the grid with EVs will, therefore, not be aggregate electricity units but rather 'when' and 'where' the demand is generated,\" the report had said. \"Issues of supply capacity being concentrated at local distribution transformer or even substation level with significant EV population will have to be looked at before any large-scale roll out. EVs are unlike any other conventional load that the grid has been used to. Their disproportionately large impact on peak demand compared to electricity units requires significant peaking and distribution capacity head-room that risks severe underutilisation and, therefore, unviability.\"
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If the grid is not upgraded, EVs can really destabilise it. Sample this. The normal grid loads have an annual aggregate load capacity to effective capacity used factor of nearly five; with EVs, this can vary between 80 and 160. It will bring volatility to instantaneous demand.
\"There are no two ways about it. The grid has to be smart and flexible,\" said Dr Sandeep Pai, senior research lead, Centre for Strategic and International Studies--a Washington based think tank. \"It will require distribution companies to make investments but without that there is no other way. With slow and fast chargers all around and many vehicles getting plugged in at homes, the peaks in power demand<\/a> will be of a different nature. The traditional grid is ill equipped to take that and will collapse and it will not be for lack of power.\"
Infact, there is a silver lining to this as well. With a plant load factor hovering between 55 and 60 percent, thermal power plants are inefficient right now and need higher consumption. Electric vehicles are a new category that can do just that.
<\/figure>If the grid is not upgraded, EVs can really destabilise it. Sample this. The normal grid loads have an annual aggregate load capacity to effective capacity used factor of nearly five; with EVs, this can vary between 80 and 160. It will bring volatility to instantaneous demand.
\"There are no two ways about it. The grid has to be smart and flexible,\" said Dr Sandeep Pai, senior research lead, Centre for Strategic and International Studies--a Washington based think tank. \"It will require distribution companies to make investments but without that there is no other way. With slow and fast chargers all around and many vehicles getting plugged in at homes, the peaks in power demand<\/a> will be of a different nature. The traditional grid is ill equipped to take that and will collapse and it will not be for lack of power.\"
Infact, there is a silver lining to this as well. With a plant load factor hovering between 55 and 60 percent, thermal power plants are inefficient right now and need higher consumption. Electric vehicles are a new category that can do just that.
With a plant load factor hovering between 55 and 60 percent, thermal power plants are inefficient right now and need higher consumption. Electric vehicles are a new category that can do just that~<\/cite><\/div><\/blockquote>
According to an EY report electric mobility<\/a> is expected to help the power and utilities sector to realize net cost and revenue benefits from both the demand and the supply side.
\"The realization of this economic value will depend on effective implementation of an ecosystem to improve EV
adoption along with measures to maintain grid absorption. This complex cross-sectoral implementation plan would also need to be assessed for and mitigated against risks, the most prominent of which are the incapability of the grid to absorb mass EV charging<\/a> and customer perceptions around electric mobility,\" the report said.
With innovative use of time of day tariff, it also offers the scope for proper utilization of renewable power.
\"EVs charging in the afternoon or late nights can absorb RE peak power with base-load functioning to meet the rest of the demand. This will, in turn, reduce the net load dipping in the current scenario and help maintain a leveled load curve,\" the EY report added. \"A leveled load curve would result in cost savings for the entire value chain with higher utilization of base-load capacity (lower fixed cost\/unit) and lower requirement for expensive peaking capacity.\"
\"I would not go so far to say EVs will definitely help in improving the plant load factor of the power sector but I would not disagree that there is potential,\" said Kumar of Care Ratings. \"Time of day tariff can be a very useful tool in shaping consumer behaviour. We know that solar power is generated best during the day so by offering say 30 percent lower tariff at that time, consumers can be encouraged to charge their vehicles at that time. At other times when there is low renewable support, tariff could be higher to disincentivize people from charging their vehicles. This is the template that European countries are also adopting.\"
Clearly, India has and will have enough power for any number of electric vehicles on the road. All that needs to be sorted is how effectively the power is transmitted and distributed.
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